Is the “Savchenko Law” Really That Bad?

In recent weeks, many alarming publications have appeared regarding the implementation of the so-called “Savchenko Law”. Almost every one of them cites staggering data on the number of people who could allegedly be released and are being released precisely under this law. Attention is focused on the number of murderers, rapists, and robbers who will be set free. The emotional component in almost all these reports leaves no room for common rational analysis, turning the process of informing citizens about the law’s effect into outright manipulation and even the spreading of panic.
Here are some examples of such reports.
There is this claim: “The State Penitentiary Service (SPtS) has calculated that under the famous ‘Savchenko Law’, almost 50,000 prisoners could be set free, and nearly 1,000 criminals have already been released!”
And this one: “As SPtS spokesperson Kateryna Denysiuk told Segodnya, according to their data, 48,835 prisoners fall under the action of the law (in total, there are about 80,000 ‘inmates’ in Ukraine. — Author). That is, more than half of all the country’s prisoners could be set free!”
Now, it is worth clarifying: how many people actually fall under the action of the law, and how many are really being released, and within what timeframes? Since almost every convicted person begins their time in detention in a remand prison (SIZO) while the investigation and trial are ongoing, and is only transferred to a colony to serve their sentence after the court verdict, it is natural that almost everyone serving a sentence has spent some time in a remand prison. It is not surprising that they all fall under the action of the law. What is the danger in the fact that 48,000 out of 52,000 convicted persons fall under the action of the law? What is scary about this fact? Well, they fall under it. Their days in the SIZO will be recalculated according to the rule of one day in a SIZO equaling two days in a colony. For someone who spent two months in a SIZO, two months will be added to the term already served; for someone who spent six months, six months will be added. A rather insignificant portion of convicted persons spent a year or more in a SIZO. They will have corresponding terms added. They will not be “released immediately”, but only have time added to their served term.
Will “more than half of all the country’s prisoners” be set free, as the author of the scare story claims? Or perhaps nearly 50,000 prisoners?
Yes. They will be set free. And not half—but all of them. But not all at once and right now, but sooner or later, because everyone (except for those sentenced to life imprisonment) has a sentence for a specific term. Some of those who have their served term recalculated under the “Savchenko Law” will be released in a month, some in two years, and some in 10–12 years. Why will they be released? Because of the “Savchenko Law”? In no case!
And here we have yet another blatantly false claim that nearly 50,000 prisoners will be released to freedom precisely “under the famous ‘Savchenko Law’”.
No. They will be released because their term of imprisonment determined by the court will expire. However, the authors of the “scare stories” try to create the impression that if not for the “Savchenko Law”, these criminals would not have been released. They apparently believe—never. And then, suddenly—the law appeared, and criminals are being released under it.
I am not even talking about the accuracy of the data provided on the number of prisoners—“in total, there are about 80,000 ‘inmates’ in Ukraine. — Author”. In reality, there are currently just over 69,000 people in detention in Ukraine, and these data are on the penitentiary service’s website; they are easy to find and verify. The author added another 11,000 prisoners due to simple negligence and lack of professionalism. Readers must decide for themselves whether to trust the claims of such a “professional”.
The following claim is also made: “One must fear the release of serious criminals who could end up free. Those who committed armed robbery, theft—because a person is often not corrected in prison,” an expert in the field of prisoners’ rights and member of the Public Council under the SPtS, Tetiana Yablonska, told us.
By default, one must understand that the danger is created by criminals released precisely under the “Savchenko Law”. Is this really the case?
According to the penitentiary service data posted in the “Donetsk Memorial” review (http://ukrprison.org.ua/articles/1453132032), in 2015, when there was no “Savchenko Law” yet, 21,206 people were released from Ukrainian prisons (in 2014—42,977 people), including 10,336 people released on parole. Thus, without any “Savchenko Law”, the penitentiary service released 1,767 criminals each month last year, and almost half of them (860 people)—not upon completion of their term, but early. And in 2014, twice as many. And somehow, this did not particularly worry anyone.
And now the head of the agency himself, who should know these statistics better than anyone, scares us: “And we are currently releasing more than 1,000 murderers in accordance with this law.”
And who were his subordinates releasing throughout 2015? Not criminals? Not robbers? Not murderers?
It is worth turning again to the statistical data of the penitentiary service provided in the aforementioned “Donetsk Memorial” review:
The criminogenic composition of 53,000 persons sentenced to deprivation of liberty as of 1 January 2016 (in parentheses—a year earlier):
10.6 thousand people convicted of intentional murder (a year earlier—14.2 thousand people);
4.7 thousand people (7.4 thousand people)—for inflicting intentional grievous bodily harm;
13.5 thousand people (15.2 thousand people)—for armed robbery, robbery, and extortion;
1.4 thousand people (2.1 thousand people)—for rape;
According to the data provided, today in prisons, the number of people convicted of murder accounts for 20%. Every fifth one.
What is strange about the fact that the head of the agency asserts: “And I will tell you this figure right now: out of 6,000 convicted persons who will be released, every 6th was convicted for murder”?
The impression is that those convicted for murder will be released precisely because of the “Savchenko Law”. Mr Palahniuk does not mention that the agency released over 5,000 people convicted for murder in 2015. This is confirmed by the data: their number in prisons decreased over the year by 3,600 (14.2 thousand – 10.6 thousand). To this decrease, one must add the number of newly convicted persons, of whom there were at least 1,500 “murderers” in 2015. Besides them, more than 3,000 people convicted for inflicting intentional grievous bodily harm were released from prisons, as well as nearly a thousand rapists. Several thousand robbers were released.
Why did no one raise the alarm over these eloquent statistics? Against the background of this everyday reality, everything being done under the “Savchenko Law” does not look like a catastrophe or force majeure at all.
So what is the actual effect of implementing the “Savchenko Law”?
It consists in the fact that for a certain period—two or three months—the number of released convicted persons will increase slightly. Not two or threefold. Perhaps by 20%, perhaps by 40%. And the head of the penitentiary service himself provides the following data in mid-February: “To date, 1,605 people have been released.”
That is, less than the monthly “quota” of 2015. And these are those convicted persons who, as a rule, had only a few months of their term left to serve. As much as they spent in the SIZO. And if not for the “Savchenko Law”, they would have been set free anyway—if not in February, then in May or July. That is all. It is important to emphasize—even without this law, the penitentiary service released half of the convicted persons in 2015—more than 10,000!!!—on parole. Both judge Zvarych and Doctor “Pi”—they have to be released sooner or later anyway. Inevitably. The only question is that thanks to the “Savchenko Law”, they will come out slightly earlier. And to present this fact as if they would have sat in prison forever if not for the “Savchenko Law” is very incorrect, and for agency employees—unprofessional. It means deliberately distorting the facts in a very dishonest way.
Should we fear the release of serious criminals, as claimed by the expert in the field of prisoners’ rights and member of the Public Council under the SPtS, Tetiana Yablonska? Criminals released thanks to the “Savchenko Law” slightly earlier than the term determined by the court should be feared no more than the release of those more than 20,000 criminals who were released by the penitentiary service in 2015 without the help of this law.
It is worth commenting on one more statement by the head of the penitentiary service, V. Palahniuk, regarding the persons who will be released now, during the period of the “Savchenko Law” being in effect:
“I think that this law will cost the state very dearly because, why hide it, at least 60% of those released will soon return to prison. But their actions will entail new innocent human victims.”
By this statement, a high-ranking state official admits that the educational work in the prisons of the agency he heads—and for which he receives a salary—is at an extremely poor level, and nearly 60% of “unreformed” criminals are being released. He also states that once released individuals leave prison, it is in vain for them to hope for state support—the state actually does nothing for their resocialization or at least minimal support: they have nowhere to sleep, nowhere to get employed through state assistance, and in the first weeks after release, the state provides them with no financial support whatsoever. Instead, the state expects that they will not return to the path of committing crimes under these conditions. And if they do commit crimes, it punishes them. Thereby, for its own irresponsibility in its treatment of released individuals, the state punishes these released persons. Perhaps some of them would commit new crimes in any case, even if the state gave them housing, work, and support. But those, I am sure, are few. Many of the 60% named by Palahniuk are ready to lead a law-abiding life. But they need support, which the state does not provide, and only reproaches them by saying that “at least 60% of those released will soon return to prison. But their actions will entail new innocent human victims.” And these victims, the agency head believes, are solely on the conscience of the criminals. Whereas, in reality, the state’s contribution to the unfortunate progression of events and the fates of those released is considerable. But for some reason, citizens are not being intimidated by this state indifference.
Why should we believe officials that security in society depends primarily on the fact that 10–15% of the currently released convicted persons will be released a few months earlier? And where is the effect of the correctional work of the penal colonies, of the state’s assistance to released individuals? Rhetorical questions.
Therefore, it can be argued that the danger of releasing convicted persons under the “Savchenko Law” is much less for society than the danger from the actions of those state officials who for years have done nothing to solve the problems of people who have stumbled in life or see no other way to survive than to commit crimes—to steal and rob.
To conceal such inaction and indifference of the state, it is popular to blame crime problems solely on convicted persons and those Verkhovna Rada deputies who passed the “Savchenko Law”. To understand and see this, it is worth looking at the statistics, doing the calculations, and reflecting a little.
And one more sad conclusion: unfortunately, journalists, when citing the opinions of experts, are quite often too lazy to check the data they are given, whereas checking them is not difficult at all.